Test 029 for Riley Tanaka

Request

Create a compact historical H1 ruling note for the 2023 mid-segment churn investigation. Include H1's number and meaning, who made the February 15 ruling, whether the ruling was provisional or final, and the status of the one-page ruling record at that time.

Required memory

Fact 309

Riley Tanaka numbered the hypotheses in the “Mid-seg churn spike -- Feb 2023 investigation” Notion doc as: 1) pricing artifact, 2) competitor cycle, 3) onboarding timing, and 4) CS coverage gap.

Source evidence (1)

000015Feb 8, 2023 / 16:30 UTC-06:00

ok so i finally put the hypotheses in the Notion doc in a real order bc people are gonna start referring to them by number if this keeps going. 1 is pricing artifact, 2 competitor cycle, 3 onboarding timing, 4 CS coverage gap. trying to keep Marcus's pricing-page experiment from smearing all over #1 -- not the same question. #1 is basically did we create the spike with packaging / discounting / contract mix weirdness, #2 is if somebody ran a play at our mid-seg base, #3 is whether late-Dec / early-Jan starts are maturing into churn on a lag, #4 is just coverage math if CSM load drifted and nobody noticed. leaning 3 or 4 before 2. 1 still has to be first bc it's the fastest thing to kill.

Message 000015 in history

Fact 310

Hypothesis 1 in Riley Tanaka’s churn investigation asks whether packaging, discounting, or unusual contract mix created the churn spike; Riley placed it first because it is the fastest hypothesis to eliminate.

Source evidence (1)

000015Feb 8, 2023 / 16:30 UTC-06:00

ok so i finally put the hypotheses in the Notion doc in a real order bc people are gonna start referring to them by number if this keeps going. 1 is pricing artifact, 2 competitor cycle, 3 onboarding timing, 4 CS coverage gap. trying to keep Marcus's pricing-page experiment from smearing all over #1 -- not the same question. #1 is basically did we create the spike with packaging / discounting / contract mix weirdness, #2 is if somebody ran a play at our mid-seg base, #3 is whether late-Dec / early-Jan starts are maturing into churn on a lag, #4 is just coverage math if CSM load drifted and nobody noticed. leaning 3 or 4 before 2. 1 still has to be first bc it's the fastest thing to kill.

Message 000015 in history

Fact 317

On Feb. 15, 2023, Owen closed H1 in the mid-segment churn investigation, ruling the pricing-artifact hypothesis out for now.

Source evidence (1)

000039Feb 15, 2023 / 14:00 UTC-06:00

Owen closed the loop on h1 this morning. Mid-seg split by tier came back basically flat: entry 5.0%, standard 5.2%, plus 5.1% -- all within ~20 bps. If the pricing-page mess were actually driving it, entry should've been the one sticking out and the other two should've sat a lot closer to baseline. Didn't happen. So pricing artifact is out for now. Owen's drafting the 1-pager so they can stop relitigating that part and move to the next cut.

Message 000039 in history

Fact 318

Owen is drafting the H1 ruling one-pager so the team can stop relitigating the pricing-artifact hypothesis and move to the next analysis cut.

Source evidence (1)

000039Feb 15, 2023 / 14:00 UTC-06:00

Owen closed the loop on h1 this morning. Mid-seg split by tier came back basically flat: entry 5.0%, standard 5.2%, plus 5.1% -- all within ~20 bps. If the pricing-page mess were actually driving it, entry should've been the one sticking out and the other two should've sat a lot closer to baseline. Didn't happen. So pricing artifact is out for now. Owen's drafting the 1-pager so they can stop relitigating that part and move to the next cut.

Message 000039 in history

Expected tool calls

create_doc

Grading

1. field_equals / create_doc

{
  "type": "field_equals",
  "tool": "create_doc",
  "action_id": "create_h1_ruling_note",
  "path": "result.ok",
  "value": true,
  "check_id": "riley_029_00"
}

2. field_llm_judge / create_doc

{
  "type": "field_llm_judge",
  "tool": "create_doc",
  "action_id": "create_h1_ruling_note",
  "path": "args",
  "criterion": "The historical note identifies H1 as hypothesis 1, the pricing-artifact question about packaging, discounting, or unusual contract mix; says Owen closed it as out for now on February 15, 2023; and says Owen was drafting the one-page ruling record.",
  "check_id": "riley_029_01"
}

Complete grading specification

{
  "type": "tool_trace",
  "config": {
    "check_version": 2,
    "today": "2028-01-01",
    "semantic_judge_version": 2,
    "assertions": [
      {
        "type": "field_equals",
        "tool": "create_doc",
        "action_id": "create_h1_ruling_note",
        "path": "result.ok",
        "value": true,
        "check_id": "riley_029_00"
      },
      {
        "type": "field_llm_judge",
        "tool": "create_doc",
        "action_id": "create_h1_ruling_note",
        "path": "args",
        "criterion": "The historical note identifies H1 as hypothesis 1, the pricing-artifact question about packaging, discounting, or unusual contract mix; says Owen closed it as out for now on February 15, 2023; and says Owen was drafting the one-page ruling record.",
        "check_id": "riley_029_01"
      }
    ]
  }
}